Brent crude crashes to $61/b on Trump’s new tariffs

…As 70 countries set for negotiations

Agency Report

Nigeria may have lost about $28 million per barrel yesterday after oil prices plummeted further as demand concerns intensified following US President Donald Trump’s new tariffs on China and increased global supply.

Analysts say about 70 countries have reached out to the Trump’s administration to negotiate.

Brent crude price dropped by around 0.14 per cent, trading at $61.27 per barrel, down from $61.36 at the previous session’s close. US benchmark West Texas Intermediate fell about 0.12 per cent, settling at $57.83 per barrel, compared to its prior session close of $57.90.

But Nigeria’s budget is anchored on a benchmark oil price of $75 per barrel and an ambitious production target of 2.06 million barrels per day.

The implication is that, at the budget bench mark price, Nigeria would make $154,500,000 a day.

But with Brent price down to about $61 per barrel, it then means that the country would only realise $28,810,000 daily.

Thus, the country would have lost $28.81 million a day.

Analysts say approximately N193.63 trillion, up to 56 per cent of the initially projected N34.8 trillion revenue, is expected to stem from oil, reflecting Nigeria’s heavy reliance on oil for fiscal sustainability.

“WTI crude futures have fallen for seven consecutive trading days, dropping more than 20% from the April peak and hitting a four-year low.

“I think recession fears are playing a key role in the oil selloff, especially with the U.S. pushing ahead with a 104 per cent tariff on Chinese goods and Beijing showing no signs of compromise. That raises serious concerns about global demand,” Dilin Wu, research strategist at Pepperstone, said.

Prices fell as US President Donald Trump’s sweeping global tariffs officially took effect early yesterday, including a staggering 104 per cent tariff on Chinese imports, escalating trade tensions with major partners across Asia and Europe.

The reciprocal tariffs, part of Trump’s newly launched global trade framework, were implemented, targeting dozens of countries.

While China bore the highest rate, other nations were also hit hard — Cambodia with 49 per cent, Vietnam with 46 per cent, Thailand with 36 per cent, Pakistan with 29 per cent, India with 26 per cent, South Korea with 25 per cent, and Japan with 24 per cent.

The White House had initially announced a 34% tariff on Chinese goods. However, White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt confirmed on Tuesday that the rate had been more than tripled to 104 per cent as a ‘necessary correction to years of unfair trade.’

China vowed to ‘fight to the end,’ amid Trump’s new threat of imposing another 50 per cent duty on Chinese imports. Beijing is expected to announce retaliatory measures soon, but Japan and South Korea have stated they will pursue negotiations rather than immediate countermeasures.

Nearly 70 countries have already reached out to Trump to begin negotiations on tariffs following his announcement last week, according to Leavitt.

Meanwhile, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, known as OPEC+, announced they will accelerate their planned production increase to 411,000 barrels per day in May, equivalent to a three-month rise, further supporting the price decline.

‘The move is likely to push market balances into surplus,’ Daniel Hynes, a senior commodity strategist at the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group, said in a note.
Goldman Sachs predicts Brent crude will fall to $62 a barrel and WTI to $58 by December 2025, further declining to $55 and $51, respectively, by December 2026.

Meanwhile, the American Petroleum Institute (API) data showed that US crude oil inventories fell by 1.05 million barrels last week compared to the previous one.

This decline slightly eased demand concerns in the world’s top oil-consuming nation, limiting the downward pressure on prices. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) is expected to release official inventory data later today. #Brent Falls to $61 amidst Global Tariffs Concern.