IMF-World Bank spring meetings: Navigating global trade uncertainty

Amid an economic climate of uncertainty, as US President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs war rages, Omeiza Bilal takes a look at how Nigeria can navigate the global trade war.

There was worries from experts across the globe when the Managing Director of International Monetary Fund (IMF),  Kristalina Georgieva in her opening speech last week declared “Uncertainty is costly”, the message which sent directly to financial leaders across the world last week was to prepare their minds on what should be expected ahead of them.

This message of expected notable markdown in the forecasted economic growth and for some countries, it’s also expected of a sharp hike in inflation.

As financial leaders, experts are expecting the release which will serve as guidelines for operators by the IMF-World Bank spring meetings, this week, where Central Bank Governors, head of economies of various countries and other economic leaders are converging.

Back home, the local manufactures are with optimistic that all far reaching resolutions from the report should be domesticated with local solution to the anticipated uncertainty.

Many will sound the alarm about the global economy’s trajectory, as a reaction to US President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs and how to cushion their countries from the danger of low growth and high inflation caused by the policy. 

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected that Nigeria’s economy will grow by 3.0 percent in 2025, rising slightly to 2.7 percent in 2026, according to its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) report released on Tuesday, what this tells us a nation is that, leaders in both Monetary and fiscal must do everything possible to achieve the projected growth, even though we expected something better than what was projected.

Despite the forecasted growth projection, the IMF warned that Nigeria continues to grapple with deep-rooted economic challenges including soaring inflation, foreign exchange volatility, and persistent infrastructure deficits.

However, the report noted reforms such as the unification of exchange rates and removal of fuel subsidies offered a pathway to the stabilization of the economy and attract investment in various sectors, if fully implemented.

These warnings call for call to action by all relevant stakeholders to put things in order, as Nigerians are yet to see the benefits from the policies of the fiscal authority. 

“The growth projection reflects cautious optimism,” according to Dr. Kemi Adeshina, a Lagos based economist and senior policy analyst.

Those recommendations are all well and good, but the IMF has not explained how it expects countries to be able to make these reforms. Some countries have failed to make recommended reforms in the past when the international environment was much more benign, including during previous eras of low interest rates.

Nigeria’s annual inflation rate rose slightly, according to the NBA report to about 24.23 percent in March 2025, from the 23.18 percent in the previous month, which was the softest since June 2023.

Food inflation is worrisome, as it is still the largest component of the basket, it has remained elevated but eased to 21.79 percent from 23.51 percent in the prior month.

The core inflation, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural products and energy triggered to 24.43 percent, from 23.01 percent in the previous month.

 The government’s efforts to reform the forest market and cut down on unsustainable subsidies are necessary steps, but the structural weakness remains the challenge. If inflation is not tamed and the deficit in infrastructure remains weak, growth may fall short of projection.

Nigeria’s efforts to stabilize its economy must be complemented by stronger fiscal discipline, improved good governance and diversification from oil to other areas such as the mineral sector, agriculture and manufacturing to be able to achieve the expected growth. 

For Nigeria, which is the continent’s largest economy, the spring meetings have opened a critical opportunity to push forward key domestic reforms to draw international support and set a long term economic recovery. 

The good thing is that Nigeria’s delegation to the meetings led by the Honourable Minister of Finance, Wale Edun and Central Bank Governor, Olayemi Cardoso, used the global platform to reaffirm Nigeria’s commitment to reformation. 

The success of these efforts will depend on the collaboration between the monetary and fiscal authorities to follow through on its commitments, effective implementation, financial discipline and political will to ensure global essential intervention that translates into substantial growth for Nigerians.

The country is at the centre stage, with local high expectations, where citizens are not expecting less than good governance and quality leadership