AI-driven trade boom masks broader slowdown, says UNCTAD
Orisemeke Benjamin with agency report
Global trade in goods started 2026 on a strong footing. But much of the momentum came from AI-related products rather than broad-based trade growth, UN body UNCTAD has said.
UNCTAD noted that in the United States, imports of “automatic data processing machines”, such as servers and high-performance computing equipment, alone accounted for about three quarters of the 4% growth in merchandise imports in 2025. In China, strong growth in the same category almost offset the net decline across all other imported products, which comprise more than 5,000 types of product categories.
Across East Asia, Northern America and parts of Europe, trade in AI-related products registered double-digit or even triple-digit annual growth in 2025.
Technology manufacturing supported industrial resilience
Echoing this dynamism, the global economy entered 2026 on a relative firm footing after growing near 3% in 2025. Industrial output in developing economies remained stronger than in advanced economies through the end of 2025 and into early 2026.
Technology-driven manufacturing, especially related to AI, played a key role in that momentum, especially in China and other emerging Asian economies.
Trade growth outside technology sectors remained uneven
Outside the technology sector, merchandise trade conditions were much softer.
The report notes that traditional sectors such as basic consumer goods, textiles and some intermediate inputs saw only modest gains through early 2026. Commodity-linked trade remained subdued, while industrial equipment outside the technology sector showed uneven momentum.
UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) expect merchandise trade growth to weaken significantly in 2026. After growing an estimated 4.7% in 2025, merchandise trade growth in real terms is projected to slow to between 1.5% and 2.5% in 2026.
A new UNCTAD report says the outlook is weakening because of slowing aggregate demand, weaker investment, persistent uncertainty and geopolitical tensions, as well as a likely cooling of the boom in artificial intelligence.
An increasingly fragile trade rebound
The concentration of growth in AI-related products also leaves trade more vulnerable to external shocks in a global economy rattled by military escalation in the Middle East. The conflict has disrupted energy markets and shipping routes, adding pressure on freight rates and trade costs.
UNCTAD projects global growth to slow in 2026 as higher energy prices, transport disruptions, market volatility and search for financial safe assets weigh on investment and demand.
AI-related sectors remain dynamic. But the broader trade rebound already appears to be losing momentum.
