Global oil prices easing to weaken Nigeria’s economic growth in 2027 – Report
Omeiza Bilal
Nigeria’s economic growth will slow to 3.7 per cent in 2027 as easing global oil prices reduce external revenue inflows, despite a modest improvement expected in 2026, a new report by the African Development Bank Group (AfDB) projects.
In its African Economic Outlook 2026 report, the development finance bank stated that Nigeria’s growth will rise marginally from an estimated 4.0 per cent in 2025 to 4.1 per cent in 2026.
It noted that the anticipated growth in 2026 will be driven by increasing oil prices and production, expansion in the services sector, and increased public investments in electricity, transport and logistics.
“Growth in Nigeria, the region’s largest economy, is projected to increase marginally from an estimated 4.0 per cent in 2025 to 4.1 per cent in 2026, supported by increasing oil prices and production, growth in the services sector, and increased public investment in electricity, transport, and logistics. In 2027, growth is projected to decelerate to 3.7 per cent on account of the anticipated easing of global oil prices and thus reduced external revenue inflows,” the report said.
The bank warned that Africa’s medium-term outlook remains vulnerable to supply chain disruptions, inflationary pressures, exchange rate depreciation, and tightening global financial conditions.
The report stated that higher fuel and fertiliser prices could weaken agricultural output, increase food insecurity, and worsen inflation across the continent.
The institution explained that that elevated inflation could force African central banks to tighten monetary policy further, thereby weakening growth through reduced lending to the private sector.
It added that prolonged global shocks could heighten debt vulnerabilities, increase borrowing costs, weaken fiscal balances, and constrain public investments and social spending across African economies.
The AfDB urged African countries to adopt coordinated fiscal, monetary, and structural reforms to cushion the impact of recurring global shocks.
“Addressing the adverse impacts of successive waves of shocks and increasing geopolitical fragmentation on African countries requires a holistic approach, comprehensive policy, and financing. African central banks need to implement prudent monetary and exchange rate policies tailored to anchoring long-term inflation expectations,” the report said.
