Off-grid boom: Why Nigeria’s solar revolution is bypassing the national grid

Orisemeke Benjamin

Nigeria has emerged as sub-Saharan Africa’s fastest-growing market for small-scale solar systems. However, stagnant investment in utility-scale renewable energy is preventing the country from converting this boom into grid-wide power stability, according to a new report by BloombergNEF (BNEF).

The study, titled: “Sub-Saharan Africa Renewable Energy Market Outlook”, highlights a widening divide across the continent: while South Africa leads in large-scale clean energy projects, Nigeria’s growth is driven almost entirely off-grid by businesses and households escaping an unreliable national grid and skyrocketing fuel costs.

Driven by worsening blackouts and expensive petrol and diesel generators, Nigerian consumers are aggressively adopting solar-plus-storage systems. BNEF estimates Nigeria added 3.1 GW of small-scale solar capacity between 2024 and 2025, bringing cumulative off-grid capacity to roughly 6 GW.

Forecasts indicate Nigeria’s cumulative solar capacity could reach 87 GW by 2035, with annual additions scaling from 2.4 GW in 2026 to 16.2 GW by 2035. Equipment imports reflect this massive appetite: between 2025 and April 2026, Nigeria imported 2,370 MW worth of clean energy hardware—second only to South Africa in the region.

In contrast to booming consumer demand, Nigeria’s utility-scale market remains largely inactive. Between 2020 and 2025, only two major grid-connected solar developments were commissioned: the 10 MW Kumbotso solar plant and the 70 MW Zungeru hydro-linked project. Virtually no utility-scale capacity secured financing during the 2025–2026 period.

BNEF attributes this stagnation to the absence of transparent power purchase agreements (PPAs) and competitive auction schemes. Unlike South Africa—where clear policy frameworks attract both government and corporate investments—Nigeria lacks a predictable pipeline to lure large developers.

BNEF concludes that economics, rather than climate policy, is driving Africa’s solar transition. Without urgent regulatory reforms to build a reliable procurement framework, Nigeria’s solar boom will remain off the grid, leaving the national power supply vulnerable.