Nigeria: Macroeconomic pressures ease in 2025

Orisemeke Benjamin

Nigeria’s macroeconomic environment moved from a period of intense adjustment in 2024 toward gradual stabilisation in 2025.

The sharp policy shifts implemented over 2023–2024, including exchange rate liberalisation, subsidy reforms, monetary tightening, and fiscal restructuring, initially deepened macroeconomic pressures. However, recent data indicate that these reforms are beginning to moderate systemic imbalances.

While the direction of change is now positive, the pace remains uneven, and underlying vulnerabilities, particularly in the fiscal and real sectors, continue to constrain a full recovery.

Data for 2025 indicate a clear but measured improvement in macroeconomic conditions, with the MCI moderating from –3.0 points in 2024 to -2.0 points in 2025.

Across the quarters in 2025, the MCI improved progressively from -2.9 points in Q1- 2025, -2.7 points in Q2-2025, -2.3 points in Q3-2025, to -2.0 points in Q4-2025.

This trajectory confirms that macroeconomic pressures are easing, but at a gradual pace. The improvement in 2025 was largely driven by the external sector, where the ESI shows the most significant turnaround.

From -1.7 points in 2024, the index improves steadily, turning positive by Q3-2025 (+0.3 points) and strengthening further to +0.9 points in Q4-2025.